Craig Williams has applied a piece of simple reasoning to his choice of New Zealand two-year-old Ruud Awakening in Saturday's Golden Slipper ahead of Black Opal winner Criterion - he thinks she can beat the favourite Overreach.
"If I didn't think Ruud Awakening could beat Overreach I wouldn't be on her," Williams said.
"I would have ridden Criterion instead."
Ruud Awakening is clearly the best of her age in New Zealand and Williams knows better than most just how good she is.
The pair combined to win New Zealand's richest race, the Karaka Million, a win that was followed by a Group One success at the filly's only run since.
Williams win on Ruud Awakening was his second in the Karaka Million, and by far the strongest of the two.
"I thought the previous time there may have been a lack of depth in the race," Williams said.
"But this year I really liked what I felt. She ran the fastest last 400 metres of the day and was very strong.
"I thought pretty much straight away that she was good enough for the Slipper."
Williams will go to Sydney full of confidence on Tuesday to ride Ruud Awakening in her final gallop before Saturday's Rosehill feature.
The jockey said he had received good reports on the filly's progress from one of Sydney's most experienced riders.
"Rod Quinn rode her in a piece of work last week and he told me she felt very good. He's given me a lot of confidence," he said.
While Williams' personal opinion is as valuable as any other guide, it ignores a crucial piece of history.
The Golden Slipper is one of the few feature races on the Australian calendar that has never been won by a New Zealander, the last to get close being Our Maizcay who finished fourth to Flying Spur in 1995.
To that, Williams reasoned that not many two-year-olds cross the Tasman to run in the world's richest juvenile race.
"All I know is that this filly gave me the feeling that she could be the one that is good enough," he said.
Following confirmation on Monday morning connections had paid the $150,000 late entry fee, Ruud Awakening was backed from $17 to $11 on the TAB with Overreach still the dominant favourite.
A late fee was also paid for the Peter Moody-trained Il Cavallo, a winner on debut last week, but he is unlikely to make the 16-horse field which will be declared on Tuesday morning.