The numbers are mostly against champion hurdler Black And Bent in Sunday's Grand National Hurdle at Sandown, but his rider Steve Pateman is counting on class and courage to give his horse a second win in the race.
Black And Bent set a record when he won his 10th straight hurdle race, but in two jumps runs since he has struggled when giving weight to some up-and-coming gallopers.
"He was beaten for the first time in a few years at Bendigo and then got beat at Warrnambool, but they weren't bad runs," Pateman said.
"Especially at Warrnambool - he hit the second last and lost his back legs and still got running again.
"And he's going to appreciate the 3900 metres on Sunday more than some of the others.
"He's still a champion."
If he is to succeed on Sunday under 72kg, Black And Bent has to carry the greatest weight by a winner in more than 70 years.
He also has to give large slabs of weight to all his rivals and as a result has been listed at $7 for a race in which he started at $1.30 when he won it in 2011.
Favourite for the Grand National is Wells who conquered Black And Bent at Warrnambool, confirming his emergence as a potential star.
Pateman has better prospects on Bashboy in the Crisp Steeplechase, a race the pair won last year.
Bashboy won the Crisp last year by almost 18 lengths and showed with his wins at Bendigo and Warrnambool at his last two that he is going as well as ever.
The Ciaron Maher-trained runner is a $1.35 favourite to confirm his status as Australia's best steeplechaser.