Facts and figures tell Gary Portelli his promising sprinter I'm All The Talk has a monumental task in the Concorde Stakes at Randwick on Saturday.
But it's what he doesn't know which might be the three-year-old's salvation in the 1000m sprint race which marks the return of Hay List, one of Australian racing's headline horses.
Portelli is clinging to the hope Hay List turns up with some extra padding around his giant frame because as he sees it, the Concorde weight scale and an unkind barrier draw present an almighty challenge for his horse.
The Warwick Farm trainer will have to rely on second-hand information for a mounting yard assessment of Hay List because he will be at Flemington to watch Rebel Dane run as favourite in the Bobbie Lewis Quality.
Rebel Dane earned a Melbourne trip with his first-up win in the Show County Quality but Portelli gives the impression a similar result with I'm All The Talk will be a bonus.
"I'm All The Talk is a much stronger horse physically but he's only raced against two-year-olds in the past and he's poorly weighted against a horse like Hay List," Portelli said.
"If the right Hay List turns up they won't see which way he went but everyone is in the race hoping he might be one run short."
It irks Portelli Hay List is giving I'm All The Talk only 3.5kg under the special handicapping conditions of the Group Three race.
Hay List is a three-time Group One winner while the best of I'm All The Talk's two career wins came in a Group Three lead-up race to the Golden Slipper.
"The weight scale is great for the older horses but it doesn't give the younger ones trying to come through much of a chance," Portelli said.
I'm All The Talk will return to racing against his own age in the Heritage Stakes over 1100m at Randwick in two weeks.