The odds are firming dramatically about Dunaden being given his chance to win a second Melbourne Cup.

David Redvers, the bloodstock agent who manages the racing affairs of the stayer's owner Sheikh Fahad Al Thani, says the Melbourne Cup is almost certain to win out as Dunaden's end-of-year target.

Plans for the 2011 Melbourne Cup winner will be confirmed after he runs in the Prix Foy, a Group Two lead-up race to the Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe, on Sunday.

"He's just a shade off being an Arc winner in our opinion," Redvers told Sky Sports radio.

"In our heart of hearts he is right up there with the best horses in the world over two miles but over one-and-a-half miles he just misses a bit."

A Prix Foy win might convince trainer Mikel Delzangles to head to the Arc but a minor placing - with merit - will be good enough to clinch a Melbourne trip.

"If he runs a great race and finishes third and is running on at the end, I'd say he is ninety-nine per cent to be heading down to Australia," Redvers said.

"If we do, Mikel's plan is to straight off run in the Melbourne Cup."