Chris Waller insists he can't lose in the long term even if it doesn't work out for Kermadec in the $1 million George Ryder Stakes at Rosehill on Saturday.
Waller will run Kermadec against Australia's best sprinter-milers at weight-for-age instead of stepping one of the most promising horses in his stable up in distance to the Rosehill Guineas.
The three-year-old is close to Shooting To Win at the top of Ryder betting and while Waller respects how the market is shaped, he admits he is shocked the colt is vying for favouritism.
"I'm very surprised about that," Waller said.
Kermadec was rated the unlucky runner in the Australian Guineas and the Rosehill Guineas looked an obvious progression until Waller decided otherwise.
"He could have gone to the Rosehill Guineas but I still see him as being a bit soft and not quite fully matured yet," Waller said.
"That's why I want to keep him to shorter trips. Yes, we've picked a hard race but the distance has influenced my decision.
"If I get it wrong and he turns out to be a two-thousand metre horse, there are plenty of those races in the spring for him as an older horse."
Kermadec is the best of two Rosehill rides for the outstanding English jockey Ryan Moore who will also try to add the Golden Slipper to his Cox Plate and Melbourne Cup wins.
Waller has six runners in the George Ryder, a race he has won three times.
Sacred Falls and Royal Descent are the best-performed of the Waller squad as a high-grade Group One winners but the trainer is reserving judgment about their chances.
"They are both still one run away from their best," he said.
Japan's Real Impact has been passed fit to run.
Real Impact was inspected at his stable at the Canterbury quarantine station on Friday morning after the entire sustained a minor crack to his near-fore hoof.
He is the lesser-fancied of two Japanese horses contesting the Ryder with Nick Hall's mount World Ace rated a $7 chance.