The race-eve scratching of Contributer from the Queen Elizabeth Stakes has Criterion challenging for favouritism in Sydney's richest race.
Godolphin's Contributer was forced out on Friday because of lameness in his off-fore leg.
In the market reshuffle, Japanese horse To The World ($3.40) just shades Criterion ($3.80).
While at much longer odds than Criterion, Red Cadeaux will be the crowd favourite at Randwick on Saturday when he runs his first race in Sydney.
And while Criterion and Red Cadeaux will be combatants in $4 million Queen Elizabeth, they could be travelling companions in a couple of weeks to another race named for the British monarch.
Both are entered for the QEII Cup on April 26 in Hong Kong where both have performed well in the past.
Three-time Melbourne Cup runner-up Red Cadeaux won 2013 Hong Kong Vase while Criterion ran third in the Hong Kong Cup in December at his first start for trainers David Hayes and Tom Dabernig.
First both have to get through Saturday's race in good order and both trainers are happy with their charges.
The weather played its part in trainer Ed Dunlop's decision to tackle the 2000m race with Red Cadeaux in the belief it would be easier on a soft track than the 3200m of the Sydney Cup.
Hayes and Dabernig, who also have Australian Cup winner Spillway in the Queen Elizabeth, expect a wet surface to be in Criterion's favour.
"Both Criterion and Spillway are very well but I prefer Criterion with the prevailing conditions," Hayes said.
"The owner, Sir Owen Glenn, is keen to go back to Hong Kong in two weeks.
"He has done extremely well in his three Group One races for me on firm ground but his form says he is even better in the wet."
Criterion's wet-track form includes wins in last year's Rosehill Guineas and Australian Derby when he was trained in Sydney by David Payne.
Since going to Lindsay Park in Victoria, Criterion has not missed a place, running third in the Canterbury Stakes and second in the George Ryder to go with his Hong Kong placing.
"Spillway is also very well but I think Criterion is the better one in the wet," Hayes said.
Red Cadeaux finished fifth in the Australian Cup, his first start since his sixth behind Flintshire in the Hong Kong Vase at the December meeting.
Although his four previous Australian appearances have been in Melbourne Cups, Dunlop says Red Cadeaux is not an out-and-out stayer.
"He's not a dour, dour stayer in European terms," Dunlop said.
"He's more of a mile-and-a-half (2400m) horse.
"Two miles on slow ground is not something we wanted to be a part off particularly against a horse like Hartnell who is well handicapped on 52 kilos."
Dunlop is unsure where his global wanderer will go next.
"He is entered for Hong Kong, Japan and Singapore or he could go back to England," he said.
"It comes down to what (owner) Ronnie Arculli wants to do."